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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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