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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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