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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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