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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 05 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - WATSON, FARLEY & WILLIAMS
The continued spread of Coronavirus and governmental measures to minimise the impact is likely to affect the shipping industry and supply chain.
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Wednesday, 05 February 20
INDONESIA'S COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.46% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The oil and gas industry benefitted from a strong and solid ground in the previous year. We witnessed a slow but steady increase in bunker’s ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
RUSSIA EXPORTED 28.6 MLN TONNES OF LNG IN 2019 - REFINITIV
A lot of attention has been paid recently on the surge in LNG exports from the United States. However, another country which is seeing truly expone ...
Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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