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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 01 February 20
COAL IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE - MINING REVIEW
The coal sector is living under the constant threat of being blamed by environmentalists as being responsible for a world disaster called global wa ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
CIL PRODUCTION TO NOT EXCEED 640 MILLION TON IN FY20: OFFICIAL - PTI
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Saturday, 01 February 20
WHO PAYS FOR IMO 2020? - FREIGHT WAVES
The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented its low-sulfur fuel mandate on January 1, 2020. Full enforcement be ...
Friday, 31 January 20
EIA EXPECTS U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION FROM RENEWABLES TO SOON SURPASS NUCLEAR AND COAL
In the latest long-term projections, the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects electricity generation from renewable sources such as ...
Thursday, 30 January 20
PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES SEEK 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' FOR COAL BLOCK AUCTION - PTI
Private sector companies scouting opportunities for commercial coal mining in the country are seeking a “level playing field” to encour ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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