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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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