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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 12 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The recent Coronavirus outbreak in China has led to a global health emergency by World Health Organization and it is yet to be seen how long the ph ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
CHANGES IN LNG MARKET COULD UNDERCUT PLANS FOR NEW JAPANESE COAL PLANTS - CLYDE RUSSELL
Reuters: Clyde Russell
The collapse in the spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is a short-term phenomenon that may wel ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY SEES FREIGHT MARKETS IN A COMPLETE STATE OF COLLAPSE AS DEMAND GETS PARALYZED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK - ALLIED
With China and the world still trying to contain the effects and come to terms with the Wuhan novel coronavirus outbreak, the shipping industry see ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION IN 2019 - BANCHERO COSTA
In a worrying development, global steel production slowed down considerably in the fourth quarter of 2019. In the final 3 months of 2019, total cru ...
Sunday, 09 February 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA STRUGGLED, A 50,000DWT SHIP FIXING A COAL RUN FROM EAST KALIMANTAN TO INDIA AT $2,000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market endured another dreadful week of calamitous rate level falls, as the usual season low Q1 period combined with rece ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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