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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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