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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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