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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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