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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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