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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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