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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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