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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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