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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
COAL'S SHARE OF CHINA ENERGY MIX FALLS IN 2019 BUT CONSUMPTION STILL RISING - REUTERS
Coal accounted for 57.7% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday, down 1.5 percentage ...
Monday, 02 March 20
SHIPOWNERS AND OPERATORS COULD FACE DETENTION OF SHIPS FROM 1ST MARCH UNDER IMO RULE - ICS
Port state control authorities will begin to enforce the IMO’s Sulphur 2020 from 1st March, making it an offense for ships to carry fuel that ...
Saturday, 29 February 20
SUPRAMAX SENTIMENT WAS UP IN A FEW KEY AREAS OVER THE LAST WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market woes related to Coronavirus have now spread through the wider global markets like wildfire. The wider supply and d ...
Thursday, 27 February 20
FOREIGN COMPANIES LIKELY TO SKIP COMMERCIAL COAL BLOCK AUCTIONS - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Centre is in the process of inviting global players for commercial mining, following 100% foreign direct investment in the sector. However, giv ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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