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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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