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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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