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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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