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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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