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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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