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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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