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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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