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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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