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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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