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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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