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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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