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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 18 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite we all knew about the Covid-19 weeks ago, few could realize the size of the thread until the last few days. The examples of China and Italy ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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