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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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