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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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