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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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