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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 31 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.43 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.17 points Monday, down 0.43 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
COAL POWER REMAINS IN GLOBAL DECLINE, DESPITE CHINESE SURGE - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The impact of coronavirus has prompted a surge in coal-fired power plant construction permits in China, with the Chinese government issuing more pe ...
Monday, 30 March 20
CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR SHIPS AND CREW - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Countries around the world are strengthening their border control measures in order to prevent the further spread of COVI ...
Monday, 30 March 20
LAY-UP AND RE-ACTIVATION REVISITED - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the maritime industry in previously unthinkable ways. Ports around the world are denyi ...
Monday, 30 March 20
PANAMAX: INDONESIA LACKED VOLUME, PARTLY DUE TO FORCE MAJEURE IN INDIAN PORTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As Covid-19 continued to ratchet up tensions across the globe, the Cape market dealt with the change to remote working. Most regions o ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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