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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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