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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
BIMCO REVISES 2020 FORECAST FOR MAIN SHIPPING MARKETS
The coronavirus pandemic is impacting global shipping demand for 2020 negatively. The speed of the virus spread makes it difficult to assess the fu ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
U.S. COAL EXPORTS DECLINED IN 2019 - EIA
In 2019, U.S. coal exports declined to 93 million short tons (MMst), a 20% decrease from the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Informatio ...
Thursday, 19 March 20
SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN 3,700 OR MIN 4,200 NCV LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), has issued an international tender for total 160,000 MT (±10%) (80,000 x 2 Panamax) of ...
Wednesday, 18 March 20
DRY BULK: INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES PROVIDING A BIG BOOST IN THE EAST WHERE SENTIMENT FOR HANDIES ALSO STARTED IMPROVING - INTERMODAL
The BDI ended last week with small gains on the back of an encouraging number of cargoes out of key trading regions that helped sustain the reserve ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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