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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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