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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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