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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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