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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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