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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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