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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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