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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Wednesday, 26 February 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Coming from one of its busiest periods historically, with a list of scrubber and BWMS retrofits on a waiting list, the ship repair sector is witnes ...
Wednesday, 26 February 20
AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL COAL GIANTS EXIT SOUTH AFRICA, ESKOM TO DEPEND ON TWO MINERS FOR 70% OF ITS SUPPLY - BUSINESS INSIDER
While some of its politicians continue to imagine that coal has a future in South Africa, two key developments from the real world show that securi ...
Tuesday, 25 February 20
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR REGISTERED A NET PROFIT OF US$20 MILLION FOR FY 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur, one of the largest coal mining company in Indonesia, has recorded an US$882 million revenue for FY 2019, 1% lower compared t ...
Monday, 24 February 20
COULD SOME VLSFO FUELS BE BANNED? - GIBSON
The run up to the implementation of the new IMO rules on marine fuels from1st January 2020 had owners and charterers analysing the vari ...
Monday, 24 February 20
CHINA SAYS MAJOR COAL FIRMS RESTORE 95% OF PRODUCTION CAPACITY - REUTERS
China’s coal companies controlled by the central government have resumed operations and are back at more than 95% of their capacity, an offic ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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