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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA RESUMES OVER 70 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 70.2 percent of its coal production capacity with output recovering steadily amid the fight against the novel coronavirus epidemi ...
Thursday, 20 February 20
CHINA THERMAL COAL MARKET FACES 2-3 MONTH CORONAVIRUS SHORT SQUEEZE: NOBLE - REUTERS
China’s domestic thermal coal market faces a 2-3 month short squeeze as a rapidly spreading coronavirus outbreak curtails production more tha ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 1 MILLION TONS OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR Q2- Q4 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, (KOMIPO). has issued an international tender for total 1 million MT of coal for April to December 2020 l ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
GLENCORE WRITES OFF ALMOST $1 BILLION AT COLOMBIAN COAL MINES DUE TO FALLING EUROPEAN IMPORTS: BLOOMBERG
The economic case against European coal is proving too much for even Glencore Plc.
The world’s biggest coal shipper cut the va ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MINERS WELCOME INDONESIA'S NEW JOBS BILL THAT COULD SPUR COAL GROWTH - REUTERS
Miners have welcomed proposed changes to Indonesian mining rules under a new law aimed at boosting investment, though critics are concerned that th ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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