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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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