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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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