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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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