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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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