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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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