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Tuesday, 25 February 20
SHIPPING UPDATE - ALLIED
 The positive feeling and optimism for a fresh rally during the first few months of 2020 that prevailed in the tanker markets during the final quarter of 2019 is now looking ever more likely to never materialize.
The drop noted in Chinese oil demand as part of the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak, as well as several other factors, have all played a part in negatively affecting the market so far. Freight rates are clearly portraying this status quo, as the BDTI has fallen from the beginning of the year by almost 46%, while the average earnings for VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax units have plummeted by around 85%, 68% and 64% respectively, said Allied Ship brokers in its latest weekly report.
According to Allied Ship Broker, with major areas of China being under quarantine, the whole economy has slowed down significantly, affecting among others the demand for crude oil imports. It is estimated that demand has fallen by around 20% so far. The impact has been equally dramatic for the global oil industry, taking under consideration that today China is the biggest oil importer in the world, normally importing more than 10m bpd. This reduction of oil imports has also been reflected in port calls into China, with estimates showing a fall of approximately 20% to 30% noted in February. At the same time, refineries in China, as well as other countries, are slowing down operations in order to adapt to this curb in demand. According to the International Energy Agency, the situation will severely affect the market, with forecasts showing that the world’s demand for crude oil will decline in the first quarter of the year (first time in ten years).
Allied further noted that, the biggest exposure to this decline in demand is to be faced by Saudi Arabia, who is China’s largest supplier. However, this will not be limited there, as the recent “phase one” deal signed between the US and China stating that the latter would purchase from the US an additional $18.5 billion of energy products this year and $34 billion next year is now looking to be ever more an unrealistic target to reach. China may be the most significant headache for investors right now, but this is not the only factor that is dragging down tanker markets. Worries have shifted over to the supply side of the industry as well lately, after the decision by the US administration to lift sanctions off the Cosco Shipping Tanker (Dalian) Co. fleet. As a result, more vessels are now actively trading, during a period were fixing activity is already anemic. Things are however looking to be more positive on the side of oil production, with talks in Libya continuing and with the potential of a deal being reached, leaving for an additional 1 million bpd of crude oil to be introduced back into the market. Meanwhile, the oil rig count in the US, a factor reflecting the production of oil in the country has risen for a 3rd straight week, reaching a total count to 679. As a result, US shale production is expected to reach a record 9.2 million bpd next month. Adding to this, it is now rumored that both OPEC and Russia will not follow through with any further cuts in oil production right now. Closing on a positive tone, data from China is showing that new coronavirus cases in the country are starting to slow down, with some experts expecting a further decline in the spread growth of the virus taking place by end of March. This means that during the second quarter of the year, we may see a robust correction in the freight market, as importers in China will require to cover the “lost” period of production, leading to a significant temporary ramp up in demand for crude oil and thus for oil tankers.
Allied Shipping Research
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
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Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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