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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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