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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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