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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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