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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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