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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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