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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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