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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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