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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
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Showing 1311 to 1315 news of total 6871 |
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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