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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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Showing 1316 to 1320 news of total 6871 |
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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