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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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Showing 1306 to 1310 news of total 6871 |
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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