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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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Showing 1296 to 1300 news of total 6871 |
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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