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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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