We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
|
|
|
Showing 1276 to 1280 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
