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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
Tuesday, 26 November 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS 1 JANUARY 2020 GLOBAL CUT IN SULPHUR IN SHIP'S FUEL OIL LOOMS: IMO
“IMO 2020” requirements for ships to cut sulphur oxide emissions enter into effect in just over one month’s time. This will signi ...
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Showing 1266 to 1270 news of total 6871 |
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
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