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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 25 November 19
COAL SUPPLY BY CIL TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 8 PC TO 253 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - PTI
Supply of coal by state-owned CIL to the power sector registered a decline of 8.5 per cent to 253 million tonnes in the April-October period of thi ...
Monday, 25 November 19
A 53,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $9,500 DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY VIETNAM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a week of value being eroded on the Capesize market, Friday brought improved sentiment across most of the routes. The 5TC averag ...
Monday, 25 November 19
KOWEPO INVITED 6.79 MILLION TONS OF (SUB)BITUMINOUS STEAM COAL BIDS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for 6,798,000 tons of coal for 5 years ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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