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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Monday, 02 December 19
GREENER LNG IS VITAL TO ASIA'S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT - WOOD MACKENZIE
Asia struggles with the world’s worst air pollution. Delhi hit the headlines in November 2019 as levels spiked to such hazardous levels that ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA GAS & LNG CONFERENCE 2020
5th East & Southern Africa Gas & LNG Conference 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th East & Southern Afri ...
Monday, 02 December 19
5TH DEEPWATER EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
5th Deepwater East & Southern Africa Congress 2020
April 2-3
Maputo, Mozambique
5th Deepwater East & Southern ...
Sunday, 01 December 19
6TH CENTRAL & EASTERN EUROPE NUCLEAR INDUSTRY CONGRESS 2020
6th Central & Eastern Europe Nuclear Industry Congress 2020
January 20-21 | Prague, Czech Republic
Overview
6th ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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