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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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