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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
...
Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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