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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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