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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Tuesday, 07 January 20
BHP EYES INDIA FOR COAL GROWTH AS CHINA DEMAND FLATLINES - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, believes the long-term trajectory of the emerging economy of India and the acceleration of its steelmaking ou ...
Sunday, 05 January 20
BUNKER QUALITY CLAIMS IN 2020 - ISSUES TO CONSIDER - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In recent years the shipping industry has faced a significant number of bunker quality claims, most notably ari ...
Saturday, 04 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A 53,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY INDONESIA TRIP TO CHINA AT $4,000 AND A 58,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP TO THAILAND AT $5,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The New Year started with an erosion on pre-Christmas rates as the higher low sulphur fuel costs due to IMO 2020 affected levels. From ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
DMO 2020 PRICE SET FOR ELECTRICITY SECTOR - IAN WOLLFF
On the 26th December 2019, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued the decree No. 261.K/30.MEM/2019 about the States needs for c ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
SULPHUR 2020 COMPENDIUM - HOW ARE INDIVIDUAL PORT STATES EXPECTED TO REACT? - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With the new sulphur limits soon to be in force, Standard Club has been investigating the ways in which certain jurisdict ...
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Showing 1211 to 1215 news of total 6871 |
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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