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Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
 Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the present state of the market. However, to what degree is this a "fair" comparison to undertake right now?
According to Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping Research the freight collapse of 2016 in the dry bulk sector has been a reference case for every discussion when the market has undergone any severe downward pressure. However, despite its excessive impact, it was a "known" situation, or to put it more bluntly, it was 'an accident waiting to happen'.
Thomas Chasapis further noted that, the excess tonnage capacity was the result of the massive new order activity that had taken place in years prior, as well as, the disconnected relationship of demand and supply fundamentals, eventually pushing freight earnings to their perceived absolute bottom. After that, the market started to adapt to this new market reality, with more modest orderbook activity and, for a time, massive scrapping activity. This "rebalancing" phase helped translate over to a 2-year period of ever-improving freight market conditions (with some minor corrections here and there), coupled by a more stable market with lower volatility. Suddenly though, from the later part of 2018 the picture was promptly altered. This high-risk environment is not something new for the shipping industry, nor are the periodical exaggerations and asymmetries in realized earnings.
However, Thomas Chasapis, said in his latest research report, having experienced a series of single shock events in such a short period of time, it comes naturally to question the robustness of the different business models. Tail risks and “black swans", won’t be just catch phrases, but a change in investment attitude while we enter a new "era" of how we quantify different kinds of market risks (and their likelihood of being fulfilled).
According to Allied, the COVID-19 outbreak has disrupted most business activities worldwide, with the possible outcomes being numerous and presenting multiple decision directions to practitioners. In other words, we are in a genuine situation, where an absolute comparison to previously noted similar excessive negative pressures would be, to say the least, misleading. Prior to the beginning of this year, the discussion revolved around the potential of a two-tier market unfolding, depending on what type of fuel each vessel would burn. As it turns out and from all that has transpired, we may be experiencing a multi-tier freight market. The Pacific market is in sharp negative territory in terms of earnings, while in the Atlantic, things are relatively more promising (even if not particularly good). Moreover, especially for scrubbers-fitted units, freight rates are following a completely different orbit than what is presented by the quoted Baltic freight indices. The asymmetrical freight market is one of the many bizarre things happening right now. With a certain time-lag, asset prices are likely to follow this steep downward correction (this has not fully materialized yet). With the market in disarray, where uncertainty is the prevailing sentiment, the mispricing of different asset classes is the obvious outcome. The bargain attitude, as well as, the short-term unpredictable outlook has created an excessive "bid-ask spread", indicating a market in distress, unable to properly price both the future risks and trends involved. 2020 has already shown to be a challenging year. Even with a very weak short-term outlook, the market may well absorb most of the negative side effects and eventually return to an upward track much sooner than many expect.
Despite this however, the longer-term macroeconomic trends are still troubling. China is already facing the possibility of losing around 0.5% points from its projected growth for this year, something that would translate over to a significant step back in global seaborne trade, Thomas Chasapis concluded.
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Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A NUMBER OF INDONESIAN ROUND TRIPS WERE REPORTED AT BELLOW USD 5,000 PD LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The Capesize market has hit new low's in the first week of the new year, with the West Australia route being fixed at USD 6.6 being ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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